Student loan delinquencies have climbed to nearly 25% of borrowers with payments due, up from 9.2% in 2019, according to new analysis from The Century Foundation and Protect Borrowers. Nearly 9 million borrowers are now in default, and an estimated 7.9 million entered delinquency in the first three quarters of 2025 alone. Credit scores have dropped sharply as a result, with 2 million borrowers seeing their scores fall from near prime levels around 680 to roughly 580. Researchers warn that if borrowers exiting the SAVE Plan default at similar rates, total borrowers in distress could reach 17 million.
The report, based on nationally representative credit bureau panel data, describes a sharp break from pre-pandemic trends. One in four borrowers with a payment due is now delinquent. Three quarters of those moving from delinquency into default had never defaulted before. The average student loan balance among delinquent borrowers is approximately $34,000.
Delinquency rates vary significantly across demographic and geographic lines. Black and Native American borrowers have delinquency rates approaching 50%. Borrowers who previously received Pell Grants show delinquency or default rates of 27% compared to 15% for non Pell borrowers. States in the Southeast, Southwest, Rust Belt, and Mid Atlantic regions show some of the highest concentrations of delinquency and default.
Credit deterioration has been swift. Over the first three quarters of 2025, borrowers with delinquent loans saw credit scores decline by an average of 57 points, from 591 to 534. Among those who had near prime or better credit in 2024, average declines reached 100 points. Nearly half of borrowers who were near prime, prime, or super prime in 2024 fell into deep subprime territory in 2025.
The report links much of the increase in delinquency to access issues surrounding income-driven repayment plans. According to Department of Education data cited in the analysis, four out of five borrowers with delinquent loans are not enrolled in an income-driven plan. In 2025, the Department paused processing of IDR applications for three months, rejected 328,000 applications in August, and ended the year with 734,000 applications still unprocessed. During the same period, the Office of Federal Student Aid lost 653 employees, a 42% staffing reduction.
Default volumes are also rising. An estimated 3.6 million borrowers defaulted during the first year examined, bringing the projected total number of borrowers in default to 8.8 million. Outstanding debt held by borrowers in SAVE related forbearance totals approximately $400 billion. If delinquency rates among those exiting SAVE mirror the broader population, an additional 1.7 million borrowers could fall delinquent.
