The financial cushion separating consumers who can pay from those who cannot is getting thinner, and for households without meaningful assets, it may already be gone.
The Equifax Market Pulse Index fell to 60.9 in the first quarter of 2026, its second consecutive quarterly decline. The index, which blends credit behavior, debt loads, income, assets, and spending capacity into a single score from 1 to 100, dropped 1% from the prior quarter and now sits below its average since tracking began in mid-2021.
Why it matters: For the credit and collection industry, the report is a map of where repayment capacity is eroding. Every generation lost ground this quarter, and the movement is accelerating toward the extremes of the financial spectrum rather than settling in the middle.
Equifax sorts consumers into three tiers: Thrivers (index scores of 80 and above, roughly the top 10% of the population), the Middle (scores of 50 to 79), and Strivers (49 and below, about the bottom 20%). During the quarter, the Thrivers segment shrank 5% while the Strivers group grew 2%. The Middle held flat in size, but that stability is an illusion. Looking back over six quarters, the middle tier has hollowed out by 6.2%, with millions of consumers churning up or down.
The direction of that churn comes down almost entirely to assets. Of consumers who fell from the Middle into the Strivers tier, 97% had less than $100,000 in total assets. Meanwhile, 68% of those who climbed into the Thrivers group came from households with more than $1 million.
By generation: Millennials took the steepest hit, falling 1.2% to an index of 58.1. They also make up the largest share of the Strivers tier at 7.6% of the total population, a troubling signal given they are in their prime earning years. Generation X slipped 0.8% to 60.3, Generation Z edged down 0.1% to 58.9, and Boomers remained the most stable at 64.3.
The debt picture: Bankcard balances hit a record high in the first quarter even as personal savings fell to $745.6 billion, less than half the mid-2021 level. Equifax says the combination points to consumers funding daily expenses with credit rather than income, a dynamic that strong top-line spending numbers have masked.
One data point collections professionals should not overlook: more than 13% of Strivers hold credit scores above 780. A pristine credit file is no longer a reliable proxy for ability to pay, and the report argues that asset and wealth data are becoming essential to accurately gauging a consumer’s real financial capacity.
There is a silver lining. Over the past 18 months, 37.7% of consumers in the Strivers tier managed to climb back into the Middle, proof that financial recovery remains achievable even in a strained economy.
