The average probability that consumers will miss a minimum debt payment in the next three months rose to 13.2% in August, up 1.2 percentage points from July and above the 12-month trailing average of 12.7%, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations released earlier this week.
The reading marks the third consecutive monthly increase in the delinquency measure, which stood at 10.8% in June. Among respondents with household incomes under $50,000, the perceived probability of missing a payment reached 18.5%, compared with 10.3% for those earning $50,000 to $100,000 and 13.8% for those earning more than $100,000.
Credit conditions also drew more negative assessments. A larger net share of households said credit is harder to obtain than a year ago, and more respondents said they expect credit to become harder to get over the coming year. Households reported a worse financial situation compared with a year earlier and expect further deterioration in the year ahead, with smaller shares reporting or anticipating improvement.
The labor market outlook was mixed. The mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher a year from now rose 1.6 percentage points to 44.4%, the highest since April 2020. The New York Fed said the increase was broad-based across age, education and income groups. At the same time, the perceived probability of losing one’s job fell 0.4 percentage point to 13.8%, the lowest since February, while the expected quit rate rose 0.9 percentage point to 19.5%. The probability of finding a new job after a job loss slipped to 45.4%.
Median inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.6% for the year ahead and 3.0% at the five-year horizon, and edged down 0.1 percentage point to 3.2% at the three-year horizon. Expected gas price growth jumped 1.7 percentage points to 4.6%, while expected increases for food, medical care, rent and college costs all rose.
Median expected household income growth held at 3.0%, a range it has occupied since June 2025. Expected spending growth rose 0.3 percentage point to 5.2%. Median earnings growth expectations ticked up to 2.9%.
